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Let me explain: because most scoring systems provide disproportionate weight to the Oregon Ducks est 1846 shirt but in fact I love this final two rounds, the bracket winner almost always has chosen the champion correctly. But virtually every pool I’ve helped organize has seen an overwhelming majority of entrants cluster around the top three or four favorites. In a 100-person pool this year, a third of the folks might choose North Carolina as their champion; that means that even if the Tar Heels win it all, their backers still have to be better than 32 other UNC supporters. Those brackets now have a much smaller margin of error in the early rounds, and can be mathematically eliminated fairly quickly.
A school like Texas or Kansas or Georgetown, on the Oregon Ducks est 1846 shirt but in fact I love this other hand, is still one of the dozen or so pre-tournament heavyweights, but will gather scant national championship support, often less than their Las Vegas odds would suggest. Which means if you select such a secondary squad as your champion, you can make several major missteps in earlier rounds and still have a chance to finish first if your school becomes a surprise national champion. All that being said, don’t follow Xavier or Tennessee off a cliff and blame it on me. For eight years in a row, and for 11 of the last 12 seasons, the eventual national champion has made at least one recent Final Four appearance. (“Recent” meaning “within the past seven years.”) There have been plenty of surprising Final Four teams in that span–think Marquette and Utah and U-Mass. and yes, George Mason–but those teams haven’t broken all the way through for a national title.
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