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(updated) In the 2020 NBA season I have found some fantastic trends on 3 NBA. When any of these teams are home favorites and loosing straight up at the half… If you bet the 2nd half on them with the spread… will be winning 85 percent. One of these teams is hitting 7 out of 8 with one tie. Yes, and it’s not even that hard. Just go against the flow. In fact, it might be the case that (for most of us), the less you use your “sports expertise”, the more likely you are to win: If you think you know what will happen (and you consider yourself an average sports fan), bet on the opposite. Bet like Costanza. (The rest of my answer below is just illustrating my basic point — you can ignore it if you want.) To understand what I mean, let’s understand how betting companies set odds. They do try to model the outcome of games, but they try even harder to model betting tendencies, or to change odds as a response to current betting trends. They do this to “worsen” their model objectively speaking but improve the total winnings by exploiting irrational tendencies of bettors.
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