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If Trump is convicted, there are likely some close Senate and House races that will go to the Democrats that would go to Republicans if Trump is not convicted. I give them less than 30% odds with the small chance being up entirely to unpredictable political environments (similar to 2020 which was completely unpredictable). In terms of predictions, considering the 2022 Senate map, which is the most favorable to Democrats that there is (the other two look bad for Democrats in general), I think the odds are that Democrats will expand their majority in the Senate. I think that is especially true with all the retiring incumbents in the GOP as well in swing states. The seats that are most at risk for Democrats are actually seats they won in 2020: Arizona and Georgia, but I think they can probably hold those, depending more on how much the voter suppression the GOP is doing goes through. I think there’s a good chance of Democrats holding all the rest of their seats and winning a few more. This will enable Democrats to eliminate the filibuster once and for all. Sadly, the odds are reversed for the House and I think chances are about 30% that Democrats hold onto the House in 2022 and so a bigger majority in the senate will be less useful without the House, but it might allow them to do things like expand the courts that were stacked by Trump and McConnell.
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